The Anomaly of Analytics: How Math Changed Sports Forever

By Archith Sharma, Guest Contributor

The promise of modern day sports has been made quite clear- lots and lots of points. Sports fans today don’t know how back then, in the 80s, defense reigned supreme in basketball games. The average NBA score of a game in 2005 was around 102-94. Look at it now. 130 point games are routine. Tim Duncan, one of the greatest champions the NBA has ever seen, averaged 19 points per game in his career. Now, average players score more than that., NBA nobodys today average more points than a juggernaut from the 2000s, Tim Duncan. Just how is this possible? Analytics.

Now don’t think this is only about basketball. Just look at the NFL as well. In 2005 the average amount of points per game was 20.6. That means each team averaged 20.5. How about today? In the 2020 NFL season, in the exact same amount of games, the average amount of points per team was 27. An increase of 31 percent. In just 15 years, both sports have adapted to much more points scored. Once again, analytics has its head tangled around all of this.

So what does this whole scary analytics thing have to do with all of this? Analytics has been a common sports strategy since 2000 when Billy Beane, the manager of the Oakland Athletics combined forces with an Ivy league graduate to use research, analysis, and selection to outsmart richer baseball clubs. Now, analytics isn’t just limited to stats after a game. With all the advancements in technology over the past decade, next generation stat lines such as scoring percentage on one play, distance covered in one play, and average speed on the field has made selecting, retaining, obtaining, and releasing players much more efficient. Just look at Brady. It took 199 picks for the New England Patriots to select him. We all know how that ended. In 2017, it only took 10 picks for the Chiefs to say “Thank you very much, I’ll take Patrick Mahomes.” Selecting players is now much more efficient now than it was 20 years ago.

The impact of analytics in sports doesn’t stop there. How do you explain the scoring boom in sports like football and basketball? Well, up to the early 2000s, if you watched the sport of basketball, one sees a tough physical game where players tried to fill a specific role. Analytics has proven time and time again that more than anything, speed is the key in any team sport. Think of role-playing vs analytics like this. Why try to wrestle past someone big with your own big man when with someone small it’s easy to run right past them? The math makes too much sense. Tire out one player on the opposition with your speed and teams are only as strong as their weakest link. In team sports, speed has become more important than engagement and physicality. Scoring points becomes a task of ease. This idea surfaced in 2008, whenan abnormality in the NBA system appeared on the court - who routinely ran up and down the court and shot bombs from 30 feet away. Take a wild guess as to who that is. Stephen Curry. This guy makes everything on the court look like a toddler can do it. NBA and NFL teams started to move quicker, and that has produced a scoring boom.

Ok, you may think I’ve only been talking about basketball and football. Let’s talk about tennis. Back in the 60s, people only played by serving and going to the net. But once again, just like in basketball, an anomaly appeared and changed the way people played the game forever- Bjorn Borg and his old wooden racket. He hit the ball so hard that even if players had a powerful serve that goes 120 miles an hour, Borg would return it with such precision that at the net, the ball whizzes past your eyeballs. Players learn from their predecessors. They keep what works, and trash what doesn’t. Nowadays, net play is not nearly as effective and more people try to pummel their opponents with strong shots from the back of the court. The top 25 returners by percentage of return points won from 1970-1993 had won 50 grand slams, including Borg’s 11. The top 8 returners of the last 25 years according to Bleacher Report have won 51. The math has suggested that a strong defensive baseline return game wins grand slams over strong serves and attacking at the net. Players are using this style of play far more now, keeping what works, and forgetting what doesn’t.

We all know that analytics has changed sports forever. But has it done what it is supposed to? Has it attracted more fans? Well, not really. Many people don’t realize the value that analytics and math bring to today’s sports, and they liked the old way of the game better. But that’s just how sports has developed. Creating new ways for players to win. And next time you see a sports game, always recognize that behind all that pushing, shoving, shooting, and smacking, always remember a chess game goes on in the background where over eras teams change the way the game is played forever and it is admirable for all eyes.